Thursday, July 3, 2008

Laura's Top Farm Prospects - Top 25

#1 - Well, this would have been Brett Gardner, but his recent call up takes him off the list. If he is sent back down he will be the number 1 prospect, but for now it belongs to Ian Kennedy. I know Kennedy has been pitching in the majors, but the reality is he likely won't return anytime soon, even when healthy. Girardi says Kennedy has to earn his spot back, and with a packed rotation that may mean Kennedy has to pitch in the minors for some time. That being said, Kennedy is still a legit major league pitcher who will probably average 15 wins a season. The problem with Kennedy right now is that he is trying to be a pitcher that he just isn't: a strikeout pitcher. Yes, Kennedy will get strikeouts, probably 5 a game or so, but he just doesn't have that strikeout pitch, atleast not now. But don't get me wrong, he may not lead the league in strikeouts ever, but he will keep runners off the basepath by simply outsmarting them. The problem is; right now he is outsmarting himself. He is trying to get hitters out with just fastball and changeups, but while he probably has the best changeup in the rotation, his fastball is not good enough in the low 90's to get away with two pitches. There really is no need for that anyway since he has a great curveball which he doesn't throw as often as he does. If you look at the games he has succeeeded in, he has mixed in his curve. Girardi and Co. have been telling him this all season, but it has yet to sink into his head. I would really like to see him develop a slider at some point, but he can succeed in the bigs with his fastball, change and curve.

#2 J.B. Cox. The former University of Texas National Champion Closer will soon be setting up the Yankees World Series Champion Closer Mariano Rivera. When Rivera is gone, he will set up for our #5 prospect. J.B. isn't a strikeout pitcher, but he is a lights out pitcher who will keep the 8th inning free of baserunners. Look for J.B. to get a late July early September callup.

#3 Alan Horne. Alan won't be an ace and won't blow away hitters and he won't be the next Joba Chamberlain. But he will win about 12-18 games a year and have an ERA below 3.00. He will be a Cy Young contender at least once in his career and he will have a solid career. If not injured earlier in the year, the Yankees would have called him up instead of Rasner and he would have likely stayed in New York for good. At 25, Horne is polished and would likely enjoy success at the next level, the problem for him, like Kennedy and Chase Wright, is that there is simply not an open spot right now and when Wang comes back, it gets even tighter. The thing is, Horne and Wright would both have much more success in New York than both Rasner and Ponson. But right now, Ras is pitching just well enough to fend off Horne and Wright and Ponson for some reason or another is still is pinstripes. This power pitcher will strikeout hitters with his fastball that runs between 92-95 mph. He also has great command of a plus power curve that just freezes hitters in their tracks. He also has great command of a plus changeup that he can throw anywhere in the count.

#4 I know, we don't have spots open for pitchers right now, but the pitchers in the farm system are far more ready for the majors than the position players. Chase Wright steals the #3 spot and why not? Yes, he had some problems last season, but even the Yankees admit they brought him up before he was ready, in my opinion, that did that to protect Phil Hughes. But even though he will be forever know as the pitcher who gave up that string of consecutive HR's, he still held his own in the big apple. Most other sites and "experts" don't rank Wright nearly as high as I do, but how often do you find a quality left handed arm? Chase has fixed his problems from last year by gaining command of his breaking pitches, which weren't developed enough when he was called up, hence why it was too soon for him. But now, Chase's low 90's fastball, he has great command of slurve-curveball and his changeup is still his bread and butter butter pitch should give him big league success. His velocity is down, thanks to a string of injuries, but now healthy, it should come back. Chase is having great success this season and if he is not on the 25 man roster by next season, look for him to get traded for a top level talent. There is talk of Chase being moved to the pen, if that happens, look for Chase to have great success in the big leagues.

#5 Mark Melancon. Melancon would have been in the Bronx with J.B. Cox right now, but thanks to Tommy John surgery for both of them, their arrival may not be until next season. Cox is more polished right now than Melancon, but Melancon will be the heir to Mariano Rivera. As much as I love Rivera, mark my words, Mark Melancon will be closing ballgames for the Yankees at some point in 2009. Mark may get a September callup, by why rush him? Rivera is still effective and innings can only help Melancon grow.

#6 Jose Tabata, yes he is young and having a down season, but this kid is almost big league ready at the young age of 19. Tabata signed with the Yanks as a non-drafted free agent at the age of 16 and since then he has created quite a buzz in the Yankees Farm. Good news for the Yankees is he is a Right Fielder. I know CF's and LF's get the love but it is so important to have a quality RF. The Yankees have had a string of solid RF's from Paul O'Neill to Gary Sheffield to Bobby Abreu. But Abreu is getting old and doesn't have too much time left and Tababta should be ready when that does happen. Tabata reminds me a bit of Manny Rameriez, I know I shouldn't curse on the board =), but he has quick hands like Manny does allowing him to generate great bat speed. It's still too early to predict whether he will be a power hitter or a for-average hitter, but he has shown great potential in both areas.

#7 Francisco Cervelli. Ladies and Gentleman, now batting 6th for the New York Yankees...catcher...Francisco Cervelli! Just having some fun here, but yes, that is my prediction. Cervelli is at a crowded position in the farm with youngsters Austin Romine and Jose Montero pushing him. Plus, the Yankees just drafted a couple more young catchers. But really, Cervelli is showing the most talent behind the plate and he is doing enough at the plate to make him the top contender. Cervelli seems to be the organization's favorite too as they gave him extended playing time in the spring before the Rays overzealous idiot hurt him. I think he is the heir to Posada and with Jorgie's health struggles...2009?

#8 Austin Jackson. A phenomenal athlete who will likely have to move from CF to LF, because a young man named Brett Gardner is a superior CF. Jackson almost headed off to play college basketball when the Yankees checkbook changed his mind. He is a speed demon who will be an all-star LF for years to come roaming the outfield with Gardy and Tabata.

#9 Eric Duncan. Duncan has slipped off the radar for most, he was available for Rule 5 selection, but wasn't protected and yet no teams took a chance on him. He is struggling right now, but he has such amazing talent! This kid will make his presence know once he debuts, which by the looks of things that may still be 2 years away from happening. Duncan is not the problem in my opinion, this kid was hyped since the beginning and anything less than perfect made him a dud. I think this took a major toll on his confidence and the switch from 3rd Base to 1st was tough on him. Give him some time to adjust and he will be an all-star 1st Baseman.

#10 Carmen Angelini. How would you like to be this kid, he is going to have to fill the shoes of none other than Derek Jeter. Well, ok, I'd still love to be him. He has been given the greatest compliment of all - the Yankees say Angelini is both a better hitter and fielder than the Captain. He has amazing range which has always been Jeter's one area of lacking. That being said, will he be half the leader Jeter is? Will he be even near Jeter in clutch play? Let's just let the kid make a mistake every once in awhile =)

#11 Jesus Montero C

#12 Dellin Betances RHP

#13 Ryan Pope RHP

#14 George Kontos RHP

#15 Jeffrey Marquez RHP

#16 Chris Malec 3rd Base

#17 Justin Sndyer 2nd Base

#18 Mitch Hilligoss - Utility/SS/3rd Base

#19 Juan Miranda 1st Base/DH

#20 Phil Coke RHP

#21 Michael Dunn LHP

#22 Steve White RHP

#23 Pat Venditte LHP/RHP

#24 Austin Romine C

#25 Bradley Suttle 3rd Base

1 comment:

SportsMed221 said...

Great post Laura!! There is something attractive about a woman who can hold her own in a baseball conversation!!! LOL Seriously - well written blog and very informative as to the future of the Yankees organization. Cashman is coming up to the end of his contract - hopefully, if the Yankees acquire a new GM, all of those awesome prospects won't turn into nothing but trade bait.